虎易网

复制成功
  • 图案背景
  • 纯色背景
网上书库

虎易网上传于:2014-03-06

粉丝量:669

虎易网上传资料均来自于互联网,若有侵权,立刻通知删除。


聊城房产网_聊城房地产门户网站 防静电地板 成都辉映装饰材料有限公司 北京定做西服_西服定做 北京大华天坛服装有限公司 北京卡玛原创服装服饰有限公司 北京华尼尔服装服饰有限公司_其它 北京千百度服装有限公司 龙记地产 陕西宝天集团 聊城房产网_聊城房地产门户网站 防静电地板 成都辉映装饰材料有限公司 北京定做西服_西服定做 北京大华天坛服装有限公司 北京卡玛原创服装服饰有限公司 北京华尼尔服装服饰有限公司_其它 北京千百度服装有限公司 龙记地产 陕西宝天集团

The Laws of the Roman People Public Law in the Expansion and Decline of the Roma.

下载积分:1500

内容提示: Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two Also edited by Levrero, Palumbo and Stirati and published by Palgrave MacmillanSRAFFA AND THE RECONSTRUCTION OF ECONOMIC THEORYVolume One: Theories of Value and DistributionVolume Three: Sraffa’s Legacy – Interpretation and Historical Perspectives Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume TwoAggregate Demand, Policy Analysis and GrowthEdited by Enrico Sergio Levrero Antonella Palumbo and Antonella Stirati Editorial and selec...

文档格式:PDF| 浏览次数:7| 上传日期:2014-03-06 21:17:58| 文档星级:
Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two Also edited by Levrero, Palumbo and Stirati and published by Palgrave MacmillanSRAFFA AND THE RECONSTRUCTION OF ECONOMIC THEORYVolume One: Theories of Value and DistributionVolume Three: Sraffa’s Legacy – Interpretation and Historical Perspectives Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume TwoAggregate Demand, Policy Analysis and GrowthEdited by Enrico Sergio Levrero Antonella Palumbo and Antonella Stirati Editorial and selection matter © Enrico Sergio Levrero, Antonella Palumbo and Antonella Stirati 2013Individual chapters © contributors 2013All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of thispublication may be made without written permission.No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmittedsave with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publicationmay be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.First published 2013 byPALGRAVE MACMILLANPalgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world.Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978–0–230–35529–3This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fullymanaged and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.Typeset by MPS Limited, Chennai, India. vContentsList of Tables and Figures viiPreface ixAcknowledgements xiList of Contributors xiiIntroduction Antonella Palumbo1Part I Demand-Led Growth in the Classical Approach1 Public Debt and Aggregate Demand: Some Unconventional Analytics Roberto Ciccone152 The Inevitable Dependence of Investment on Expected Demand: Implications for Neoclassical Macroeconomics Fabio Petri 443 The Meaning of Output Trends in the Analysis of Growth Attilio Trezzini684 Potential Output and Demand-Led Growth Antonella Palumbo925 A Historical Approach to Demand-Led Growth Theory Matthew Smith1206 Normal Paths of Growth Shaped by the Supermultiplier Óscar Dejuán1397 The Pattern of Economic Growth of the Brazilian Economy 1970–2005: A Demand-Led Growth Perspective Fabio N. P. de Freitas and Esther Dweck158Part II Understanding the International Economic Order8 Continuity and Change in the International Economic Order: Towards a Sraffian Interpretation of the Changing Trend of Commodity Prices in the 2000s Franklin Serrano195 9 The Political Economy of the Rise and Decline of Developmental States Carlos Aguiar de Medeiros 22310 Harmonic and Conflict Views in International Economic Relations: a Sraffian View Sergio Cesaratto 24211 Lessons from the Crisis: the Macroeconomics of Leverage Paolo Leon265Index 273vi Contents viiList of Tables and FiguresTables6.1 Key economic indicators during long cycles, Spain 1964–2010 1426.2 Rate of capacity utilisation 1436.A Adjustment towards a new autonomous trend 1577.1 Relative per capita GDP (% of US per capita GDP) 1617.2 Average real GDP growth rates 1617.3 Relative productivity, employment structure and labour productivity growth by sector 1637.4 Decomposition equations in table form 1737.5 Average annual rate of growth decomposition, Brazil, 1970–2005 177Figures1.1 The threshold 261.2 Threshold and present-policy debt ratio 271.3 Effects of a restrictive policy (investment given) 271.4 Effects of a restrictive policy (investment reacting once) 321.5 Effects of a restrictive policy (investment reacting over time) 331.6 Effects of a restrictive policy (threshold eventually downward sloping) 331.7 Effects of an expansionary policy (investment reacting over time) 351.8 Effects of an expansionary policy (threshold eventually downward sloping) 362.1 The change in the demand for K if K/L rises from α to β 583.1 Real GDP (2000 prices), Italy, 1960–2012 73 3.2 Actual data and linear trends for sub-periods: real GDP (2000 prices), Italy, 1960–2012 743.3 Actual data and linear trend: real GDP (2000 prices), Italy, 1960–1975 754.1 Some estimates of the NAIRU 1044.2 Estimates of potential output in Okun’s definition, USA 1954–62 1106.1 GDP, productive investment and residential investment, Spain 1964–2010 1426.2 The traverse (after an acceleration of the autonomous trend) 1496.3 Structural adjustments towards the new autonomous trend 1507.1 Brazilian annual real growth rates, 1900–2008 1597.2 Per capita GDP levels 1950–2008, Brazil, South Korea and USA 1607.3 Labour productivity and GDP growth rates, Brazil 1951–2009 1647.4 Selected balance of payments accounts, Brazil 1970–2008 1757.5 GDP growth rates and autonomous expenditure growth rates 1787.6 Autonomous expenditures share of GDP 1797.7 Annual average growth rates of autonomous expenditure components 1807.8 Supermultiplier 1817.9 Household non-durables consumption and wages 1827.10 Share of domestic content in demand 1827.11 GDP growth rates and private enterprise investment share of GDP 183viii List of Tables and Figures ixPrefaceThis book brings together a selection of papers presented at the inter-national conference ‘Sraffa’s Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities. Critique and Reconstruction of Economic Theory’ held in Rome in 2010 under the High Patronage of the President of the Italian Republic on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the publication of Piero Sraffa’s masterpiece. The main objective of the conference was to account for the work that has followed on from Piero Sraffa’s contribution to economic analysis on both the central aspects of his scientific activity, namely the criticism of the neoclassical (or marginalist) approach to value and distribution and the reconstruction of economic theory along the classical lines of Smith, Ricardo and Marx. There were, however, two other related aims which are worth mentioning here. The first was to stimulate debate among scholars who shared the essential elements of Sraffa’s approach but differed (to various extents) about the most fruitful routes to be followed to further advance economic theory on alternative grounds to those of the still dominant neoclassical approach. As always happens when prospects of this kind are under discussion, aspects of the history of economic thought were involved, together with an assessment of Sraffa’s overall contribution, including his unpublished manuscripts, which are soon to find a more comprehensive appraisal with publica-tion by Cambridge University Press. The other aim was to further elucidate the implications for applied and policy analysis of the revival of the classical approach. The primary need to focus on the analytical structure and shortcomings of neoclas-sical theory, and, on the other side, on the properties and meaning of Sraffa’s price system, has sometimes obscured the fact that an expla-nation of distribution in terms other than factor supply-and-demand equilibria could not but lead to a different view on almost any aspect of the workings of a market economy. This is exemplified by the aban-donment of the neoclassical principle of scarcity and of the notion of Pareto optimality which necessarily arises from the absence, in classical theory, of any necessary tendency towards the full utilisation of labour, as well as from the conflicting nature of the determination of income distribution as viewed in the classical approach. Another example is the possibility – in the absence of any neoclassical principle of substitution between factors of production or goods – of extending to the long run the Keynesian principle of effective demand, which of course further strengthens criticism of that principle of scarcity. The editors of this book, indeed, believe that further advances in these fields and in the ability of the classical approach to deal with policy matters may play a crucial role in consistently turning economic theory away from the neoclassical route. They also deem that on these issues a fruitful debate may develop among schools of thought that refute the principle of scarcity as a basis for explaining income distribution and guiding eco-nomic policy. The organisation of the book reflects the underlying aims of the conference. The contributions in the first volume, Theories of Value and Distribution, include both criticisms of neoclassical theory and reap-praisals and developments of the classical approach in connection with the title subject. Here theoretical research is carried out with constant attention to the analysis of facts, policies and institutions, given the fundamental role that such an analysis plays in theoretical elaboration along classical lines. The second volume, subtitled Aggregate Demand, Policy Analysis and Growth, mainly focuses on the extension to the long run of the Keynesian principle of effective demand and on the deter-minants of growth. It also concentrates on the implications of that extension for policy analysis, as well as on classical interpretation of the evolution of the international economic order during the last few decades. The third volume, Sraffa’s Legacy: Interpretations and Historical Perspectives, deals with Sraffa’s place in the contemporary streams of eco-nomic analysis and in the history of economic thought. Together with some contributions on his unpublished manuscripts, different interpre-tations and developments of Sraffa’s thought are discussed. The choice of the contributions which form the three volumes of this book has been supported by a peer-review process. Some of the papers delivered at the 2010 conference, however, do not appear in the book only because they have already been published elsewhere or else were not revised in time for publication. We think, nevertheless, that they should be considered as part of the overall results of the 2010 Sraffa conference. At this point we should mention the central contribution to the organisation of the 2010 conference of the late Pierangelo Garegnani, who passed away in October 2011. There are many references in the three volumes of this book to his ideas, both on the criticism of neo-classical theory and on the revival and development of the classical approach. We are all greatly indebted to him for what he taught us about economic theory and the workings of market economies.x Preface xiAcknowledgementsWe wish to thank the organisers of the 2010 Conference on Sraffa besides ourselves: Roberto Ciccone, Saverio Maria Fratini, Paolo Trabucchi and Attilio Trezzini. We wish also to thank all those who acted as referees for this book, as listed here: T. Aspromourgos, A. Barba, E. Bellino, C. Bidard, G. Bonifati, S. Cesaratto, S.M. Fratini, A.L. Freitas, C. Gehrke, G. Gilibert, A. Ginzburg, H. Gram, M. Lavoie, E.S. Levrero, V. Maffeo, G. Mongiovi, A. Palumbo, F. Petri, M. Pivetti, F. Ravagnani, A. Rosselli, N. Salvadori, B. Schefold, F. Serrano, A.M. Simonazzi, M. Smith, A. Stirati, P. Trabucchi, and A. Trezzini. xiiList of ContributorsSergio Cesaratto, University of SienaRoberto Ciccone, Roma Tre UniversityÓscar Dejuán, University of Castilla – La ManchaEsther Dweck, IE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Fabio N. P. de Freitas, IE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) Paolo Leon, Roma Tre UniversityCarlos Aguiar de Medeiros, IE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Antonella Palumbo, Roma Tre UniversityFabio Petri, University of SienaFranklin Serrano, IE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Matthew Smith, University of SydneyAttilio Trezzini, Roma Tre University 1IntroductionAntonella PalumboOne of the fields of research to which the modern revival of the sur-plus approach has devoted much attention, in the fifty years following Sraffa’s Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities, is the theory of output and the analysis of the processes of growth and development in capitalist economies. Although no explicit theorisation about the determinants of output levels is to be found in Sraffa’s work, the revival of the classical approach to value and distribution and the critique of neoclassical theory prompted by his work, as shown in Garegnani’s (1978–79) seminal contribution, have relevant implications for the analysis of output. On the one hand, the critique of neoclassical mechanisms based on factor substitutability implies (i) the lack of the analytical basis on which traditional analysis affirms the automatic tendency of the system to the full utilisation of resources and (ii) a criticism of the reduction of Keynes’s contribution to the analysis of the transitory incapability of the system of ensuring sufficient demand to absorb potential output. On the other hand, the fact that in the classical theory of value and distribution output levels are regarded as given when determining rela-tive prices and the residual distributive variable (in the so-called ‘core’ of surplus analysis – Garegnani, 1984), implies a degree of freedom with respect to output determination and thus compatibility with different theories of output. In the words of Garegnani (1978, p. 340), ‘Ricardo’s theory of distribution is open, in the sense that it neither provides premises capable of justifying the tendency of investment to adjust to saving, nor depends on the existence of such a tendency. This “open” character sharply distinguishes the Ricardian theory from the subse-quent marginalist theories, which saw distribution as the result of forces of demand for and supply of “factors of production”.’ 2 IntroductionThe eleven essays contained in this volume may be said to build on these original insights, by contributing new material to the general aim of explaining the determination of output levels and their evolution over time on the basis of two fundamental notions: the absence of any mechanisms whatsoever ensuring the tendency of the system to the optimal use of resources (and thus the necessity of studying the evolu-tion of demand and the limits it may pose on the level and growth of output); and the fundamental independence between output determi-nation and distribution, or, more accurately, the absence of any neces-sary relation between them. This independence, which stems from the very structure of the clas-sical theory of value and distribution, is a distinctive element of the long-period theory of output developed within the modern revival of the surplus approach, which sets it apart from other theories attempting the extension of the principle of effective demand to the long period on different bases. One of the most influential of such attempts has been the ‘Cambridge’ theory of distribution (Kaldor, 1955–56; Robinson, 1956 and 1962) postulating a strict and necessary direct relation between the rate of accumulation and the rate of profit. Starting from the ‘Keynesian hypothesis’ (Kaldor, 1955–56, p. 195) according to which it is the level of investment, independently determined, which causes and generates the corresponding level of saving, the Cambridge approach interprets this causation as entailing that in the long period any autonomous increase in the rate of accumulation must necessarily be met by a corresponding increase in the ratio of saving to the stock of capital, which can only be obtained if the proportion of profits in national income grows, given the higher propensity to save out of profits. The Cambridge theory of distribution is thus based on the assumption that in the long period the overall level of output does not have sufficient elasticity in responding to autonomous changes in investment, and that for this reason the composition of output between consumption and saving must necessar-ily change to accommodate the higher rate of investment. This would happen through an increase of money prices relative to money wages (induced by the temporary excess demand) which will produce the necessary fall in real wages. However, as shown by Garegnani (1992) and Garegnani and Palumbo (1998), such rigidity of long-run output to independent changes in demand – which in Kaldor (1955–56) takes the form of the full- employment hypothesis while in Robinson (1956, 1962) is represented by the assumption of the long-run rigidity of the output/capital ratio – is in Antonella Palumbo 3reality unwarranted when taking seriously the conception of the growth process as driven by demand. An essential part of this conception is in fact the notion that productive resources, far from being exogenously determined, are mainly the result of the long-run level of activity itself. This happens through the processes of creation or destruction of produc-tive capacity that a prolonged over-utilisation or under-utilisation of installed capacity entail, while other mechanisms (such as migration, changes in the participation rate, transfers between low-productivity and high-productivity sectors – see Kaldor, 1985) are at work allow-ing for a similar flexibility in the supply of labour force in response to changes in the demand for labour.Such mechanisms typically operate over long periods, so that some discrepancies between available resources and their utilisation are always observable; at the same time, the fact that unused resources tend slowly to disappear from sight implies that there is no need to observe great such discrepancies in order to recognise the wide margins of elasticity with which output may accommodate changes in demand. The neces-sary link between accumulation and distribution that the Cambridge theory of distribution postulates thus disappears, and the necessary trade-off between investment and consumption which characterises that theory disappears as well. Not only does this allow for a separate determination of distribution on the basis of a complex of social and institutional forces, as entailed by the classical surplus analysis (see the essays in Volume I); it also implies that the fundamental conclusion of Keynes’s analysis as regards the short period, namely that a direct rela-tion of causation may be postulated between investment and consump-tion, is confirmed and extended to the long period. All the authors contributing to this volume share this common theoretical ground and interpret the long-run principle of effective demand as entailing that the variations in the level of output act as the adjusting mechanism between investment and saving, exactly as postulated in Keynes’s short-run analysis. Similarly to what happens in the determination of distribution, the ultimate determinants of growth are to be sought in a complex of socio-historical circumstances which defy any simple and mechanical analysis of causation. Growth cannot be considered in merely quantitative terms as the increase over time of an aggregate indifferentiated amount of product; it has rather to be regarded as ‘a complex process, entailing structural change of the economic system, such that it can only be plausibly explained in concrete terms by reference to social, politico- institutional and technological factors’ (as Smith maintains in his essay 4 Introductionin this volume). This also entails that the clear-cut distinction tradition-ally to be found in economic literature between the theory of growth and the theory of development loses part of its meaning.This theoretical attitude with respect to the analysis of growth is not only an expression of the above-mentioned separability and mutual independence between the determination of distribution and the deter-mination of output, which allows a plurality of determining factors to be taken into account in each: it is also an expression of the particular method of analysis which, following the lead of classical economists, is adopted in the modern revival of the surplus approach when dealing with such questions. According to Garegnani’s (1984) reconstruction (see the Introduction to Volume I), outside the purely deductive and analytical ‘core’ of their theories (devoted to the study of the general and necessary relations between relative prices and distribution), the classical economists used to address such questions as the determinants of distribution or of accumulation (the ‘intermediate data’ of the core) by means of an analysis made up of a mixture of deduction, observation and generalisation from experience; where no precise and mechani-cal relations are postulated between variables, but complex systems of influences and interrelations are considered (this also implies the pos-sibility of considering mutual interrelations between accumulation and distribution, provided they are part of this complex system of influences and are not regarded as necessary and mechanical relations). This very methodological characteristic implies that in the theory of output and in the study of the determinants of growth, similarly to what happens in the theory of distribution, the classical approach requires a method of analysis in which institutional and social factors play a rel-evant role, so that no abstract general theorisation is possible without reference to the historical conditions in which economies develop. In principle, this implies that no neat distinction can be traced, when analysing the determinants of distribution or those of output, between pure theory and applied analysis.To different degrees, the essays contained in this volume (as well as in Part II of the first volume, ‘The Revival and Development of the Classical Theory of Distribution’) bear out this methodological attitude; and this is also the reason why no sharp line has been drawn, in con-ceiving this volume, between a theoretical and an applied part. Rather, the two parts into which the volume is divided deal respectively with ‘Demand-Led Growth in the Classical Approach’ (the first seven essays) and ‘Understanding the International Economic Order’ (the last four essays). Antonella Palumbo 5In the first essay of Part I Ciccone addresses a problem which cur-rently has a relevant impact on collective choices and policy debates, i.e., the role and management of public debt. The aim of his chapter is to show how deeply the attitude towards public debt and its policy implications may change when regarded from the theoretical angle assumed in this volume. According to the ‘view of total output as governed by aggregate demand independently of the availability of resources’, public debt can-not be seen as subtracting savings to private accumulation, so that no trade-off arises in principle between public and private expenditure. The chapter highlights the potential expansionary effect of public deficits, which act on output both directly and indirectly by inducing higher capacity-building investment, and critically reviews the conclusions of mainstream literature on fiscal multipliers. On these premises, Ciccone shows analytically the potential perverse effects of restrictive fiscal poli-cies aimed at reducing the debt/GDP ratio by comparing the long-run effects of different policy regimes, and maintains that lower values of the debt ratio might be rather achieved, under certain conditions, through expansionary fiscal policies.Petri’s chapter is conceived as a critique of the neoclassical theory of investment. Apart from the decisive critiques that have been directed at it following the capital debates, which show the fallacious bases on which the decreasing demand for factors is obtained when heteregene-ous capital is considered among them, Petri finds a second weakness in the neoclassical theory of investment, which would be present even conceding the working of the factor substitution mechanism, and has to do with the necessary dependence of investment on output. He shows that factor substitution, once the durability of fixed capi-tal is taken into account, necessarily operates only on the investment flows. This implies that factor substitution operates slowly and that dur-ing the very long adjustment process its effects interact with the effects of other forces (like the influence of investment on aggregate demand and the influence of demand on the level of production), producing in the end the possibility that the relationship between the rate of inter-est and investment is in some circumstances opposite to what theory prescribes. More accurately, the rate of interest proves insufficient to determine investment as long as the quantity of labour employed at each stage of the adjustment process is indeterminate. The analysis also implies that no mechanism can be immediately envisaged, even con-ceding factor substitution, that automatically increases the demand for labour in response to falling wages. 6 IntroductionThe following five chapters all deal, in a more or less direct way, with the controversial methodological issue of the analytical tool to be used in studying the long-run tendencies of the system, which has been the object of much debate within the approach. Controversy has particularly centred around the notion of ‘super-multiplier’, originally developed by Hicks (1950), which has been pro-posed by Serrano (1995) as a useful representation of the long-period relationship between the level of output and autonomous demand that in his view can be postulated in the analysis of growth within the modern revival of the surplus approach (other supermultiplier models are to be found in Bortis, 1997 and Dejuán, 2005). The supermultiplier is determined on the hypothesis that capacity-building investment is to be regarded, in the long run, as an entirely induced variable, while other components of demand (especially current public expenditure and exports) may be regarded as completely autonomous. This kind of ‘unproductive’ (in the sense of being unable to modify productive capacity) or ‘final’ expenditure would be the driving force of growth, since its variations induce in the long period changes in output both through consumption and by inducing changes in investment aimed at adjusting capacity to demand.The advocates of the supermultiplier model stress its capability of replicating the simple Keynesian formula of the multiplier in an equally simple relation valid for the long run, where the capacity effects of investment are considered; the possibility of restating the autonomous role of demand in driving the growth process, since variations in the growth rate of autonomous demand are accommodated by changes in the relative shares of autonomous expenditure and induced invest-ment in total output; and the independence of distribution from accu-mulation entailed by the model. The critics (especially Trezzini, 1995, 1998; Palumbo and Trezzini, 2003) question the assumption of average normal utilisation of capacity, by showing that any change in the rate of growth of autonomous demand implies a process of adjustment whereby the degree of capacity utilisation proves different from nor-mal, even on average; consequently they believe that the validity of the model is limited to the extremely artificial case of autonomous expendi-ture growing for an unlimited long period at a constant rate (Trezzini, 1998, p. 66), and regard such an assumption as in contrast with the assumed autonomy of demand. More generally, Palumbo and Trezzini (2003) show that, from a logical point of view, the variability (both in the short and the long run) of the degree of utilisation of productive capacity is the way in which the autonomy of demand manifests itself, Antonella Palumbo 7by producing the very discrepancies between demand and capacity that imply the need for adjustment of the latter. Analysis of the actual way in which the process of adjustment operates shows its lengthy and uncer-tain nature, due to the fact that the process itself is bound to generate offsetting forces which may render the complete adjustment between production and capacity an unrealistic occurrence, even without con-sidering the variability of capacity requirements induced by technical progress. While not challenging the tendency to a uniform rate of profit and the gravitation of market prices towards normal prices, which occur on the flow of newly produced capacity (on the issue of gravitation, see the Introduction to Volume III), the systematic incapability of the system of attaining ‘fully adjusted positions’ (the definition is due to Vianello, 1985) challenge their role as reference points in the analysis of the evolution of quantities.The chapter by Trezzini contained in this volume addresses this meth-odological question from a general point of view, by investigating the double relationship, in the analysis of growth, between actual and theo-retical magnitudes, on the one side, and cyclical and trend positions of the economy, on the other side. His main thesis is that the prevailing method of studying the trend of produced quantities ‘through growth paths whose characteristics ... are defined regardless of the quantities actually produced’ derives from an ‘unjustified transposition of the rela-tion between theoretical and actual magnitudes developed in the theory of prices into the theory of the evolution of quantities’. On the basis of the different nature of the forces at stake in the determination of pro-duced quantities, he advocates a different method of analysis capable of taking into account the fact that the pattern of cyclical fluctuations may affect the economy’s trend by inducing irreversible changes (such as the presence of new capacity or its destruction, or the acquisition of consumption standards) which may not be considered as merely acci-dental. Both the absence of any theoretical reason to consider the deter-minants of trend magnitudes as persistent and independent of cyclical phenomena, and the unrealism of the hypothesis that the components of autonomous demand should grow along a smooth regular path, imply that there is no solid foundation to the attempt at establishing a relationship between normal and actual quantities analogous to the relationship between normal and actual prices.The main thrust of Palumbo’s chapter is the critique of the notion of ‘potential output’ which is to be found in mainstream literature and the critical analysis of the methodologies used by international institutions to obtain empirical estimates of potential output. Estimation methods 8 Introductionare shown to be deeply influenced by the dominant theoretical frame-work in which potential output is exogenously determined by supply factors; on the other hand, the actual content of empirical estimates is often heavily dependent on the time series of actual output, in the theoretical (unproven) belief that actual output cannot have deviated too markedly from potential, the latter being a strong attractor of the former. Some puzzling results of this literature, especially as regards the output–inflation relationship assumed by mainstream theory, are examined. Against the limitations of the supply-side approach, poten-tial output is regarded within the demand-led growth framework as endogenous and dependent on the economy’s actual realisations. It is in this context that Palumbo examines the debate about the analytical role of the fully adjusted positions within the demand-led growth approach and concludes that a meaningful definition and quantification of potential output can only be referred to the short period, the long-run evolution of potential being a path-dependent phenomenon.In his contribution, Smith is also critical of the limitations of the assumption of normal utilisation in the demand-led growth approach. After having exposed the limitations of a rigid supermultiplier model, he proposes an alternative growth model with variable utilisation both in the short and the long run. Though in a simplified way, the mod...

关注我们

关注微信公众号

聊城房产网_聊城房地产门户网站 防静电地板 成都辉映装饰材料有限公司 北京定做西服_西服定做 北京大华天坛服装有限公司 北京卡玛原创服装服饰有限公司 北京华尼尔服装服饰有限公司_其它 北京千百度服装有限公司 龙记地产 陕西宝天集团